How will Bitcoin develop in 2023?

How will Bitcoin develop in 2023?

2023 has arrived. Looking back on the turbulent ups and downs of the encryption market in the past year, many profound changes have occurred during this process, and many new features have also been displayed.
Since its birth in 2008, Bitcoin has only existed in the cryptocurrency punk community at the beginning. However, it has become familiar to people worldwide and has even been recognized as a legal currency in some small countries. With Bitcoin's continuous development and growth, the price factors and weights affecting Bitcoin are undergoing earth-shaking changes. The new cycle also presents characteristics mainly manifested in the following aspects.

1. Bitcoin de-Sinicization is becoming more and more popular in Western countries such as the United States

In recent years, China has further cracked down on the Bitcoin mining industry, leading to the de-Sinicization of the Bitcoin industry. As a result, the impact on the encryption market has also plummeted, and it is no longer a major influencing factor. In contrast, the Bitcoin industry has begun to transfer to Western countries led by the United States. The United States and other countries have launched Bitcoin futures ETFs, making Bitcoin enter the traditional financial market in the United States, and the influence of US policies on the encryption market continues to increase.

2. Bitcoin began to change from being dominated by retail investors to being dominated by institutions

With the de-Sinicization of Bitcoin, Grayscale-based Bitcoin trust products have attracted many institutions in the US stock market to participate. In addition, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the launch of Bitcoin futures ETFs and other institutions have created a high enthusiasm for institutional participation. A large number of institutional participation in this round of the bull-bear cycle has also made the encryption market present many institutional cycle characteristics. For example, Tesla announced support for Bitcoin payments, which quickly impacted the encryption market.

3. In this round of the Bitcoin cycle, institutional leverage is serious, and this round of bear market is mainly due to institutional deleveraging

Due to the big release of the Federal Reserve and other traditional markets in the United States, Bitcoin has begun to be accepted, and investment institutions in the encryption market have blindly expanded and leveraged too much. With the tightening of the Federal Reserve’s policy, funds began to flow out. The lack of substantial value output, especially the Luna thunderstorm and subsequent thunderstorms such as Three Arrows Capital, triggered a domino effect until the recent FTX thunderstorm and the Binance crisis. Institutional deleveraging is different from retail deleveraging. Retail deleveraging has a short cycle and a relatively small amount of capital, showing sharp rises and falls. Institutional deleveraging has a relatively long cycle and a large amount of capital. Therefore, its impact is wider and affects the traditional financial institutions market.
The thunder of the centralized organization has led to the development of the decentralized encryption market, and the funds have further moved towards BTC and ETH for hedging. After thunderstorms such as LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX, funds in the encrypted market have had a profound crisis of distrust in centralized institutions, and large-scale funds have flowed to DeFi and others. In addition, there was a thunderstorm on FTX, and the price of SOL plummeted; after the crisis of DCG, tokens such as FIL and NEAR were liquidated, and market funds further flowed to BTC and ETH. The market share of the two also continued to rise, further becoming the "darling" of the market.
Nowadays, although much data on the chain have hinted that "Bitcoin has reached the bottom," Bitcoin has undergone many changes in the mid-term of this bull-bear round. The most important thing is the characteristics of institutionalization and the increasing influence of US regulatory and financial policies. The institutionalization of the encryption market has led to a longer period of deleveraging in this bear market. At least for now, the crisis of trust in FTX and the panic caused by Binance are still great, and the bottom of the encryption market needs further confirmation. At the same time, the United States encryption market regulatory policies are expected to be implemented one after another, and there are still great uncertainties in the future.
In the future, although Bitcoin will still be affected by macro factors, this influence will continue to weaken. Market volatility aside, there is still a glimmer of hope in a gloomy market, as stronger national regulation will bring more confidence to the market.